A 50MW trough solar thermal power station requires approximately 1800 to 3000 tons of thermal oil, which is related to the specific circuit design quantity, pipeline length, and heat storage hours of the power station. We take the average value for estimation, that is, based on the installed capacity of each 50MW solar thermal power station requiring approximately 2500 tons of thermal oil. If we follow the Chinese government's plan to achieve a 3GW solar thermal power installation by 2020 and conservatively estimate the installed capacity ratio of trough solar power stations at 60%, that is, 1.8GW, the demand for thermal oil is approximately 90000 tons. Calculated at the market price of RMB 35000 per ton of thermal oil, the market value is approximately RMB 3.15 billion.

The above estimate does not take into account the demand for replacement of the thermal oil part throughout the entire lifecycle of the solar thermal power plant.

Once the Chinese CSP market receives policy support and is launched, referring to the development history of the photovoltaic market, the installation target of 3GW in 2020 will be easily exceeded. Therefore, the prediction of the market value of CSP thermal oil worth over 3.1 billion yuan before 2020 is relatively conservative.

On September 14, 2016, the National Energy Administration officially issued a notice on the construction of solar thermal power generation demonstration projects. A total of 20 projects were selected for China's first batch of solar thermal power generation demonstration projects, including 9 tower power stations, 7 trough power stations, and 4 Fresnel power stations. It is expected that all of them will be put into operation before December 31, 2018.